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Deep Market Analysis July 15: BTC Breaks $65K — 12.2% Rally in 14 Days, RSI Crosses 50 for First Time Since July 1, June CPI Cools to 2.6% Core Fueling Rate Cut Hopes, Exchange Balance Hits 7-Year Low of 6.5%, FxPro Targets $73K-$74K, Upbit Volume Explodes 1,318%
Bitcoin surged past $65,000 (+3.5%) today for the first time since June 23, with the 14-day rally reaching 12.2%. The catalyst was June CPI significantly below expectations (core 2.6% vs est. 3.0%), pushing September rate-cut odds to 45%. Key technical milestone: RSI crossed above 50 for the first time since July 1 — trend shifting from bearish to neutral-bullish. MACD momentum is strengthening. The 200-week MA ($62,445) has been held for 6 consecutive days. Exchange balance falls to 6.5% — a 7-year low. South Korea's Upbit volume surged 1,318% to $4.2B, with XRP volume surpassing BTC on the exchange. FxPro analysts note the crypto market has broken above its 50-day MA, setting a target of $73K-$74K (200-day MA). The sustainability of the $65K breakout will determine whether this rally can upgrade into a full trend reversal.
Deep Market Analysis July 13: BTC Consolidates at $64K, 200-Week MA Confirmed for 4th Day, Whales Accumulate 270,000 BTC ($16.7B) in 2 Weeks, Loss-Making Supply Exceeds Profit-Making Supply for First Time This Cycle — Historic Bottom Signal, Triple Catalyst Week Ahead
Bitcoin consolidates in a tight $63.7K-$64.2K range (flat), forming a pattern of 'resistance above, support below' at the $64K level. The 200-week MA ($62,445) has been confirmed for the 4th consecutive day — the most important medium-term bullish signal. On-chain data reveals whales accumulated 270,000 BTC ($16.7B) in the past two weeks, dwarfing combined ETF outflows and Strategy sales. BTC's loss-making supply (54%) has exceeded profit-making supply for the first time this cycle — a classic historical bottom signal that preceded 90%-500% rallies in prior cycles. Exchange balance falls to 6.6% — a 7-year low. CLARITY Act odds at 40% constitute the main structural headwind. CPI data, CLARITY hearings, and the FOMC decision form a triple catalyst this week.
Deep Market Analysis July 11: BTC Breaks Above $64K, Trump Media's $95.9M BTC Buy + CLARITY Act Fuel Weekend Rally, Exchange BTC Balance at Historic 6.6% Low, CPI Next Week to Decide Direction
Bitcoin breaks above $64K (+1.4%), extending the rally to +10.7% from the July 1 low of $57,950. Trump Media's 1,500 BTC purchase ($95.9M) and CLARITY Act progress provide dual positive catalysts. The 200-week MA ($62,445) has been reclaimed. Exchange BTC balance drops to 6.6% — the lowest since 2017. VIX plunges to 15.03 as fear rapidly recedes. Next week's CPI (July 14) and the FOMC decision (July 28-29) will determine whether $64K becomes the new floor or a temporary peak.