July 31: PCE Cools to 3.7% (First Monthly Decline Since 2020) — BTC Challenges $65K Rejected, Short Squeeze $92.3M, Fear & Greed Recovers to 28, Coinbase Q2 Double Miss, Strategy Raises $17B to 843,800 BTC, BOJ Decision + $9.6B Options Expiry Today
June PCE fell to 3.7% YoY with a -0.1% monthly change — the first month-over-month decline since 2020 — cooling inflation ignited risk appetite and pulled the September hike probability from ~80% to ~59%. Bitcoin rallied from $63,269 to $64,964 on a short squeeze, briefly touching $65,038 before rejection, closing July around $64.7K (+7-10% monthly, best in ~4 years). Short liquidations of $92.3M (62.67% of total) show the rally is covering-driven. Fear & Greed recovered from 15 to 28 (4 straight days of improvement). Coinbase missed Q2 on both revenue ($1.2B) and profit ($359.5M net loss, stock -6% AH) but hit an all-time-high 10.3% market share; Strategy raised $17B to 843,800 BTC. Binance's 500M USDT transfer to Tether was technical reallocation; the 594 BTC mystery transfer was traced to individual key leaks. BOJ decision (expected hold at 1.00%), the $9.6B options expiry, and the monthly close are today's three variables.
July 31 Crypto Market News Roundup
| Event | Key Point |
|---|---|
| 📊 June PCE Falls to 3.7% YoY | Down from 4.1% in May — -0.1% MoM is the first monthly decline since 2020 |
| 🟢 BTC Challenges $65K, Rejected | Rally from $63,269 low to $64,964 — briefly touched $65,038 before pulling back |
| 💥 Short Squeeze: $92.3M in Shorts Liquidated | $147.2M total liquidations in 24h — shorts account for 62.67% |
| 📈 Fear & Greed Recovers to 28 | Improved from 15 (Extreme Fear) — sentiment bottoming |
| 📊 Coinbase Q2 Double Miss | Revenue $1.2B misses — $359.5M net loss — stock falls ~6% after hours |
| 🟣 Strategy Raises $17B, Holds 843,800 BTC | Q2 net loss $8.2B — BTC Hurdle ARR at 10.8% |
| 📦 Binance Transfers 500M USDT to Tether Treasury | Technical cross-network reallocation — not an outflow |
| 🕵️ 594 BTC Mystery Transfer | $38M moved from 500 single-sig addresses in 25 min — Coldcard denies vulnerability |
| 🇰🇷 Reverse Kimchi Premium at -2.05% | Upbit BTC discounts Binance by ~1.92M KRW — Korean caution |
| 🇯🇵 BOJ Decision Today | Expected to hold at 1.00% with hawkish signal — suspected FX intervention |
| 📅 $9.6B Options Expiry Today | Largest Deribit monthly expiry — Gamma squeeze risk |
| 📈 BTC +7-10% Monthly Close | Best month in ~4 years — but August seasonality is negative |
一、📊 Core Event: June PCE Cools — First Monthly Decline Since 2020
The June PCE report was the first key macro validation after the hawkish FOMC meeting — and it delivered a "relief rally" for risk assets.
| Metric | June Actual | May Prior | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCE YoY | 3.7% | 4.1% | Inflation cooling — well off the peak |
| PCE MoM | -0.1% | +0.2% | First monthly decline since 2020 — beat expectations |
| Core PCE YoY | ~3.3% (in line) | 3.4% | Core inflation extends gradual cooling |
June PCE fell to 3.7% YoY with a -0.1% monthly change — the first month-over-month price decline since 2020. The cooling inflation data directly ignited risk appetite: all three major US indices closed higher, the S&P 500 gained 1.66%, the Nasdaq rose 2.78%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged ~8% on a Microsoft-led AI rebound.1
Impact on the Fed Path
Cooling PCE prompted markets to reprice the September policy path. CME FedWatch shows the probability of a September hike falling from ~80% to ~59% — even though the July 29 FOMC held rates at 3.50%-3.75% (a fifth consecutive hold) with a hawkish tone, as 3 of 12 members voted for a hike.
Key takeaway: PCE data proved the "inflation peaked" narrative is intact, bringing a September hike from "baseline scenario" back to "coin flip." For crypto, that means the urgency of tightening has eased at the margin — buying risk assets a window of relief.2
二、🟢 BTC Challenges $65K — Short-Squeeze Driven Rally
Price Action
In the July 30 US session, BTC spiked to $64,964-$65,038, approaching the psychological $65K level. On the morning of July 31 Asia session, it rallied again from a $63,269 low to above $64.7K, currently trading in the $64,500-$64,900 range with a 24h gain of ~1.5%-1.9%.
The Short Squeeze Structure
The core engine of this rally is a short squeeze rather than fresh buying:
| Liquidation Metric | Data | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Total Liquidations | $147.2M | Leveraged positions cleaned out on both sides in 24h |
| Short Liquidations | $92.3M (62.67%) | Short sellers squeezed out by the rapid bounce |
| Derivatives Volume | -15.48% vs prior day | Buying is covering — not trending accumulation |
A short-squeeze rally is characterized by "limited price gains but concentrated short covering." Its durability depends on whether incremental buyers follow — it is not automatically a trend-reversal signal. RSI recovered from oversold territory (<20) to the neutral 40-60 zone, stabilizing the technicals without confirming direction.3
Sentiment Improves at the Margin
The Fear & Greed Index recovered from 15 (Extreme Fear) to 28 (Fear) — still in fear territory, but a fourth consecutive day of improvement. BTC held $64K even amid the US-Iran conflict and an 8% oil spike, showing notable resilience.
三、📊 Earnings Focus: Coinbase Double Miss vs Strategy's Massive Raise
Coinbase Q2: Revenue Miss, But Record Market Share
Coinbase reported Q2 earnings after the close on July 30, missing on both revenue and profit — the stock fell ~6% in extended trading.
| Metric | Q2 2026 Actual | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $1.2B | ~$1.29-1.35B |
| Net Loss | $359.5M (-$1.36/share) | ~-$0.01 to -$0.11/share |
| Transaction Revenue | $599M (-21% QoQ) | Weighed down by weak markets |
| Subscription & Services | $555M (record 48% of net revenue) | Stablecoin + subscription resilience |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $207.8M | 14th consecutive positive quarter |
The bright spots: global market share hit an all-time high of 10.3%, and Bitcoin trading now accounts for just 12% of revenue — a strong diversification story. But spot trading volume fell 25% QoQ in a weak market, the main driver of the double miss. The long-term "market share expansion + revenue diversification" thesis remains intact, but near-term transaction revenue is under pressure.4
Strategy: $17B Raised, Holdings at 843,800 BTC
In contrast to Coinbase, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues its "borrow to buy BTC" playbook: the 2026 capital plan has raised $17.06B (including $7.53B of STRC preferred stock), bringing BTC holdings to 843,800 coins. The company also disclosed a Q2 net loss of $8.2B, largely from impairment charges.
| Strategy Key Data | Value |
|---|---|
| Total BTC Holdings | 843,800 coins |
| Raised in 2026 | $17.06B |
| Q2 Net Loss | $8.2B (impairment) |
| USD Reserve | $3.75B (covers 2.1+ years of preferred dividends & interest) |
| BTC Hurdle ARR | 10.8% (effective cost of capital) |
Strategy's "BTC Hurdle ARR of 10.8%" is a key signal: as long as BTC's average annual return beats 10.8%, the borrow-and-buy strategy contributes positively to per-share BTC value. The $8.2B paper loss comes from BTC trading at $63K-$65K, below its average cost basis — but the company chose to keep aggressively accumulating at these levels, signaling strong directional conviction.5
四、📡 Other Market Developments
Binance Sends 500M USDT to Tether Treasury
A transfer of 500M USDT from Binance's hot wallet to Tether Treasury was widely read as a technical cross-network reallocation rather than a liquidity outflow — it did not disrupt BTC's upward momentum.
The 594 BTC Mystery Transfer
On-chain monitoring spotted **594 BTC ($38M)** consolidated from 500 single-signature addresses into a single wallet within 25 minutes. Because some addresses were linked to Coldcard hardware wallets, the community briefly feared a device vulnerability — but Coldcard CEO NVK publicly denied this, suggesting users imported already-compromised seed phrases. Jameson Lopp's analysis points to individual private-key exposure rather than a systemic issue.
The essence is "individual seed/private-key leaks" — not a compromised hardware wallet or a broken Bitcoin network. Panic-driven speculation is the most common secondary harm in such events: stay vigilant, but avoid overreaction.
Reverse Kimchi Premium: Korean Caution
On July 31, the Korean market showed a -2.05% "reverse kimchi premium": BTC traded at 91.79M KRW on Upbit versus 93.71M KRW on Binance — a discount of ~1.92M KRW. ETH (-2.10%), SOL (-2.06%), and XRP (-2.12%) showed similar discounts, reflecting more cautious local sentiment than global markets.
US-Iran Conflict and Oil
After the FOMC decision, Iran launched ballistic missiles at US forces — oil spiked ~8% and the Dow fell 2.2%. But BTC held $64K through the risk event, showing a resilience that contrasts sharply with 2025 behavior.
五、🇯🇵 Today's Agenda: BOJ Decision + $9.6B Options Expiry + Monthly Close
Bank of Japan Rate Decision (Today)
The BOJ announces its policy decision today, widely expected to hold the rate at 1.00% (the second hold after June's 25bp hike) while delivering a hawkish signal. Key points:
- FX intervention: Yesterday (July 30), the yen saw suspected official intervention — USD/JPY plunged from above 163 to below 158, a sharp rebound from four-decade lows
- Inflation: June core CPI was 1.6%, below the 2% target for a fifth straight month; but PPI momentum is expected to push inflation back above 2% in H2
- Next hike: The consensus expects a hike to 1.25% by year-end — ~50% probability in October, ~23% in December
- Ueda's press conference: Governor Kazuo Ueda's presser is the key event for the yen and global carry-trade direction
A BOJ hold with a hawkish tilt is neutral-to-positive for crypto — a stabilizing yen reduces the risk of carry-trade unwinds hitting risk assets.6
$9.6B Options Expiry (Today)
Today is Deribit's monthly settlement date: July 31 BTC/ETH options expiring total ~$9.6B in notional value (~149,000 contracts), among the largest monthly expiries of 2026. Pre-expiry Gamma squeeze could drive 2-3% abnormal volatility.
BTC Monthly Close
BTC closes July at ~$64.7K, a monthly gain of ~7%-10% — the best month in nearly four years. But historical data shows every August since 2022 has ended with a BTC monthly loss (2025: -6.49%, 2024: -8.6%). Whether the monthly close holds above $65K will set the near-term bull-bear boundary.
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: This is a news review, not investment advice. Cooling PCE provides a macro tailwind for BTC's push toward $65K, but the short-squeeze-driven rally needs incremental buyers to confirm. The Coinbase double miss and Strategy's massive raise reflect a diverging industry — trading revenue under pressure while long-term accumulation continues. The BOJ decision, $9.6B options expiry, and monthly close are today's three variables, with volatility expected to rise. Crypto markets are extremely volatile — please manage your risk.
Recommended exchanges:
📚 Further reading: On-chain Guide - Learn Blockchain from Zero — blockchain tutorials and on-chain data analysis
📖 Related reading:
- July 30, 2026 Crypto Market Deep Analysis
- July 30, 2026 Crypto News Deep Review
- July 29, 2026 Crypto Market Deep Analysis
Footnotes:
Footnotes
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Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) June PCE data; CME FedWatch Tool, July 30, 2026 ↩
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Source: CME FedWatch September rate probability; TradingView BTC/USD price data, July 30-31, 2026 ↩
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Source: CoinGlass liquidation data; Deribit derivatives volume, July 31, 2026 ↩
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Source: Coinbase Q2 2026 earnings (SEC 8-K); Investing.com earnings summary, July 30, 2026 ↩
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Source: Strategy 2026 capital plan announcement; on-chain holdings data, July 30, 2026 ↩
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Source: Bank of Japan policy statement; Reuters/BOJ quarterly outlook, July 31, 2026 ↩