#technical analysis

17 tagPage.articles

Crypto Market Analysis July 14, 2026: BTC Breaks $62K Under Triple Headwinds — 200-Week MA at Risk, Panic Selling Exhaustion Suggests Bottom, June CPI Cools but Core Sticky

Bitcoin fell to $61,847-$62,730 (−2.7% to −3.1%), losing $62K. The 200-week MA is under renewed threat. Trump 20% Hormuz toll, Waller rate hike warning, US gov $297M transfer. Daily spot selling plunged from 2,000 BTC (June) to 53 BTC (July). Coinbase says BTC may be bottoming. CPI -0.1% but core +0.2%. Fear & Greed at 22.

Deep Market Analysis July 13: BTC Consolidates at $64K, 200-Week MA Confirmed for 4th Day, Whales Accumulate 270,000 BTC ($16.7B) in 2 Weeks, Loss-Making Supply Exceeds Profit-Making Supply for First Time This Cycle — Historic Bottom Signal, Triple Catalyst Week Ahead

Bitcoin consolidates in a tight $63.7K-$64.2K range (flat), forming a pattern of 'resistance above, support below' at the $64K level. The 200-week MA ($62,445) has been confirmed for the 4th consecutive day — the most important medium-term bullish signal. On-chain data reveals whales accumulated 270,000 BTC ($16.7B) in the past two weeks, dwarfing combined ETF outflows and Strategy sales. BTC's loss-making supply (54%) has exceeded profit-making supply for the first time this cycle — a classic historical bottom signal that preceded 90%-500% rallies in prior cycles. Exchange balance falls to 6.6% — a 7-year low. CLARITY Act odds at 40% constitute the main structural headwind. CPI data, CLARITY hearings, and the FOMC decision form a triple catalyst this week.

Deep Market Analysis July 12: BTC Consolidates in $63K-$64K Range, Hormuz Strait Closure Triggers Risk-Off, BTC/Gold Ratio Hits Extreme Oversold Signaling Potential Major Reversal

BTC trades in $63.7K-$63.8K range over the weekend, down 0.6% on the day. Iran's IRGC Hormuz Strait closure sends oil surging, risk assets under pressure. BTC shows bid resilience near $63K. Polymarket: 99.2% BTC above $60K, 63.5% above $64K. BTC/Gold ratio at deepest oversold since 2010 (−1.81σ). Technically $64K is the pivot — break above targets $66K, failure retests $62K. Fear & Greed at 26 (Fear).

Deep Market Analysis July 11: BTC Breaks Above $64K, Trump Media's $95.9M BTC Buy + CLARITY Act Fuel Weekend Rally, Exchange BTC Balance at Historic 6.6% Low, CPI Next Week to Decide Direction

Bitcoin breaks above $64K (+1.4%), extending the rally to +10.7% from the July 1 low of $57,950. Trump Media's 1,500 BTC purchase ($95.9M) and CLARITY Act progress provide dual positive catalysts. The 200-week MA ($62,445) has been reclaimed. Exchange BTC balance drops to 6.6% — the lowest since 2017. VIX plunges to 15.03 as fear rapidly recedes. Next week's CPI (July 14) and the FOMC decision (July 28-29) will determine whether $64K becomes the new floor or a temporary peak.

Deep Market Analysis July 10: BTC Bounces to $63K Consolidating Ahead of CPI, ETF Inflow Reversal Ends 10-Day Outflow Streak, Whales Accumulate 270K+ BTC in $60K-$63K Range, 200-Week MA Under Reconfirmation

Bitcoin bounces from $61.4K to $63K (+1.5%), consolidating on low volume ahead of CPI. BTC ETFs break 10-day outflow streak with $143M+ inflows; BlackRock IBIT leads with $209M. The 200-week MA ($62,445) is under reconfirmation — needs 3 consecutive closes above to invalidate the 'failed breakout.' On-chain data shows NUPL recovering to 0.07, exchange balances at a historic low of 6.6%, and whales accumulating 270K+ BTC in the $60K-$63K range. Four scenarios with CPI as the directional catalyst.

Deep Market Analysis July 9: BTC Crashes 3.5% Loses 200-Week MA, $310M Long Liquidations with Funding Rates Negative, $60K Is the Last Line of Defense for Bulls

Bitcoin crashes 3.5% to $61.4K, losing the critical 200-week MA ($62,445) and invalidating the July rally as a failed breakout. The US-Iran ceasefire collapse and hawkish FOMC minutes create a dual shock triggering $310M in long liquidations. $60K is the last line of defense — losing it opens $56K-$58K. Four scenarios with trading strategies. On-chain data shows NUPL approaching cycle-bottom levels, only 46% of supply in profit, whales still accumulating.

Deep Market Analysis July 8: BTC Consolidates in Tight Range Awaiting FOMC Minutes with 9-9 Split, Four Scenarios for Tonight's Directional Decision, $62,445 (200-Week MA) Is the Line in the Sand

Bitcoin consolidates in a tight $62,600-$63,200 range as markets hold their breath for tonight's FOMC minutes. The 9-9 split on rate hikes and Warsh's first minutes as Chair will determine whether BTC breaks above $64K or retests $62K support. The 200-week MA ($62,445) is the last line of defense for bulls — losing it would invalidate the rally as a failed breakout. Four scenarios with probability-weighted trading strategies.

Deep Market Analysis July 7: BTC Consolidates at $63.2K-$63.5K After Weekend High, Waller's Hawkish Speech Dampens Rate-Cut Hopes, Strategy's 3,588 BTC Sale Impact Limited, FOMC Minutes Tomorrow Set Direction

Bitcoin pulls back from weekend high of $63,960 to consolidate at $63,200-$63,500 as $63,300 resistance holds. Fed Gov Waller's hawkish speech lifts July rate-hike odds to 25%, September cut odds drop to 30%. Strategy's 3,588 BTC sale is more psychological than market-moving. Key catalyst: tomorrow's FOMC minutes will determine whether BTC breaks $64K or retests $62K support.